Right Goal, Wrong Measure

By Ed Rast

Did you know San Jose residents and business don’t have sufficient information to know if our city is safe?

San Jose frequently quotes CQ Press’s 2008 City Crime Rankings as an indicator of our city’s public safety. In 2008, we were ranked 4th on CQ’s list of “Safest Large Cities in America” (with populations over 500,000) based on the FBI’s “Crime in United States 2007“ data.

CQ Press’ methodology states:

The crimes tracked by the UCR Program include violent crimes of murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault and property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, also called “Crime Index” offenses; the index is simply the total of the seven main offense categories. The FBI discontinued use of this measure in 2004 because its officials and advisory board of criminologists concluded that the index was no longer a true indicator of crime. ….. The consensus of the FBI and its advisory groups was that the Crime Index no longer served its purpose and that a more meaningful index should be developed.

Public safety is consistently ranked as the #1 city budget priority by San Jose’s residents. With that in mind, maintaining our status as the “Safest Big City in America” is still a good goal. But once you looked at why the FBI discontinued its use of the CQ methodology — because it was “no longer a true indicator of crime” — you begin to understand a new measurement is needed.

San Jose’s city administration should not rely on CQ Press’s City Crime Rankings to measure public safety, or set city budget priorities or police staffing levels.

Developing additional, detailed crime comparisons for San Jose and selected large cities in our county and state based on the FBI’s annual “Crime in the United States“ report will provide the Mayor, City Council, residents and businesses with additional information to measure public safety and set police staffing and budget levels.

In addition, there are two public reports that, if published monthly, could assist in police staff and budget allocations and educate everyone about crime and related social issues. The public could then use Community Policing to potentially prevent crimes and also address the social issues that contribute to crime.

Phoenix’s Monthly Count of Actual Offenses Known to Police uses the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) classifications and definitions and is a more comprehensive citywide crime report that what is available in San Jose.

The California Department of Justice’s Adult and Juvenile Criminal Report provides crime and demographic data that could alert city leaders, city administration and residents to potential social or criminal problems such as the drunk-in-public arrest rates. (See Page 2: Misdemeanors - Drunk; Page 4: Adult demographics; Page 6: Juvenile demographics.)

Unfortunately, due to budget shortages, the San Jose Police Department does not have the requested staff or improved technology systems needed to replace it’s decades-old, inefficient manual reports and retrieval system. Either of these would allow SJPD to produce the desired reports I have discussed previously.

A Four-Year-Old Mistake

By Ed Rast

Did you know that after police staffing reductions in 2005, San Jose’s property crime rate increased 25%, causing us to lose our “Safest Big City in the United States” ranking after six consecutive years at the top?

The San Jose Police Department in 2005 was required by city administration to reduce staffing because of budget cuts. This brought police staffing back to nearly 1998 levels — though the city’s population had grown 10% between 1998 and 2005 — and forced the department to appropriately prioritize violent crimes against people over property crimes.

The 2005 staffing and budget reductions resulted in many property crimes not being prevented, investigated or cleared due to officer and police staff shortages. Property crimes increased as well as misdemeanor and financial crimes.

If you go to City-Data.com’s San Jose page and scroll down to he chart labeled “Crime in San Jose by Year”, you can see the increase in crime after 2005 in the eight categories used by the FBI to determine the safest cities. (Click a category to compare San Jose’s crime rate to national crime rates in a bar graph.)

Many property crimes like burglaries and vehicle theft are committed by habitual criminals who will continue to commit increasingly more property crimes unless prevented by patrolling officers or arrested after their crimes are investigated. But due primarily to officer shortages, San Jose’s property crime rates are on the rise.

For example, San Jose’s car theft rate first exceeded the national vehicle thief average in 2004, when 4,517 vehicles were stolen here. The rate dramatically increased after 2005 staff cuts to reach 2006’s high of 7,139 stolen vehicles. That and the 6,413 vehicles stolen in 2007 were both almost double the national rate. 2008’s 5,229 stolen vehicles — while a substantially lower number — still exceeds the national average.

Reducing police staffing in 2005 as opposed to adding additional police staff proportional to San Jose’s increased population was not the only factor in the increase in overall and property crime rates, but it was likely a very significant factor. The FBI Crime Report cautions: “Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction. It is important to remember that crime is a social problem and, therefore, a concern of the entire community. The efforts of law enforcement are limited to factors within its control.”

Crime will predictably increase during recessions due to unemployment, underemployment, homelessness, and reductions in government and non-profit social services.

Further police staffing or budget cuts do not seem to be in the public interest for San Jose’s residents or businesses, especially during a recession. These cuts should not be imposed in the 2009-2010 budget without asking city administration to clearly answer two questions for the City Council and residents:

1. Why have San Jose’s overall and property crime rates increased since 2005 police staff and budget cuts?

2. If proposed reductions to police staffing occur in the next round of budget cuts, what effective actions will be taken during this recession to prevent potentially increased crime rates?

P.S. Thanks for your thoughtful questions on last week's open thread. I will look to answer many of them over the coming weeks.

San Jose's Understaffed Police Department, Part 2

By Ed Rast

Did you know that the San Jose Police Department ranks sixth out of Santa Clara County’s 11 largest cities in the number of sworn officers and civilian staff per 1000 residents?

Here’s how we stack up against the top five:

Palo Alto 2.55
Sunnyvale 2.18
Gilroy 2.01
Mountain View 1.96
Los Gatos 1.95
San Jose 1.86

The City of Santa Clara comes in a close seventh at 1.85. Note that total police staffing includes both sworn officers and civilian staff. For example, San Jose has 1.46 sworn officers and 0.40 staff per 1000 residents. Each city uses different ratios of officers to staff depending on local crime and budget situations, training and technology usage.

SJPD civilian staff makes up about 21.5% of the total force while many other local and large California cities maintain a staff that’s 25-40% of the force. San Jose has the lowest ratio of police staff per officer of any of the county’s 11 largest cities.

Our staff numbers are lower for a variety of reasons: consistent budget cuts since 2001; the failure to add staff over the past ten years to keep up with growth; and the decision to retain sworn officers in staff positions rather than reduce the number of sworn officers. It costs about $250,000 just to recruit and train every new sworn officer.

It has become very difficult for SJPD to recruit new officers while competing with smaller local agencies, but the problem isn’t just local. There is a growing shortage of about 7,000 police officers in agencies statewide. In addition, many older officers are scheduled to retire within the next five years. Reducing newly-trained officers (last in, first out) would only make San Jose’s future police shortage worse, likely resulting in increased crime rates.

San Jose’s overall crime rate in 2007 was 256.9 crimes per 100,000 residents. While one of the best rates among large cities with populations 500,000, this ranks us 13th out of the 15 cities in Santa Cara County.

Let’s go back to our list of large local cities with the highest police staffing levels and compare 2007 crime rates:

Palo Alto 153.5
Sunnyvale 138.4
Gilroy’s 340.0
Mountain View 186.8
Los Gatos 145.7
San Jose 256.9

You’ll notice that Gilroy’s crime rate is above the U.S. average of 320.9 while San Jose and other big cities in Santa Clara County are well below that average. This goes to show that staffing, while important, is not the only factor in crime prevention.

Higher youth populations, lower median income levels, less jobs per employment age resident (or underemployed residents), large geographical areas, and other factors contribute to increased crime rates.

In San Jose, community policing — including Neighborhood Watch and Neighborhood Action — has been reduced or discontinued. Specialized mounted, traffic and investigative units have been reduced, and overall police staffing is currently at 1998 levels despite a population surge of over 140,000 residents since then.

For FY 2009-2010, city administration proposed reductions to police funding and staffing for the eighth year in a row despite projected higher crime rates. Thankfully, the City Council did not approve the proposed reductions except that a planned 25 new officers were not included in the final budget.

Of course, adding staff is just a part of the solution here. Increased community policing and officer training, more officers assigned to investigative and detective duties (see Beat Cop’s blog from last week), and new technology for patrol and analysis can help to lower crime rates — especially for property crimes — and help offset some staff shortages.

In future articles, I’ll look at rates of various types of crime in San Jose and how increasing police staffing, technology and funding can prevent crime and help protect our streets and neighborhoods.